Less Reporting = Less Crime?
We’ve been hearing a lot from the President and the Democrat party about how their polices have made us safer and crime is down. They point to the FBI’s latest crime statistics showing just how much crime has fallen. But has it really? Does this match what you see in your neighborhood/town/city, in your local news, or when talking to your friends and neighbors? Unfortunately, the truth is literally the opposite.
Let’s take San Francisco, CA as an example. I wrote about San Francisco crime and the resulting mass business exodus last year (https://oddstuffing.com/archives/1063) and sadly things have only gotten worse.
Nearly every day there is a report of another retailer closing their San Francisco store. And I’m not talking about the multitude of family run, mom & pop shops who have been the lifeblood of their local neighborhoods for decades and nobody in San Francisco politics care about, I’m talking about the big, national brands where the wealthy people shop. These are businesses which have been open in the city for 10, 20, 30 plus years. You’d think that would give the city something to think about, but no.
Why are they closing? Crime. Rampant, uncontrolled crime. Not only are the stores being looted daily thanks to the softer-than-soft on crime state and city policies, but the businesses cannot provide a safe environment for customers or staff. Violent assaults are common as is property damage, drugs and harassment from the city’s homeless and criminal population.
Violence on the street is out of control and getting worse. When city officials do say something about it, usually because a celebrity was robbed, injured or killed, it’s defended as being “an isolated incident”. What’s actually rare is the city’s acknowledgement of the violence. By the way, take note of the agencies NOT reporting to the FBI below.
So why are we being told crime is down?
The latest FBI statistics do show crime is down, but what they don’t tell you is that conclusion is based on incomplete data. In 2021, the FBI went to a new NIBRS (National Incident-Based Reporting System) for compiling and reporting data and would only accept police reports through the new system. Not all departments were able to make the switch and as a result, more than 6,000 law enforcement agencies out of 18,000 total in the United States did NOT submit their data. That’s a full 1/3 of the reporting agencies. And another 24% only reported partial crime data. While a few smaller, rural agencies might not influence the totals much, the non-reporting agencies include the Los Angeles Police and Los Angeles County Sherriff, New York City Police, Phoenix Police and San Francisco Police. For the state of California, only 49% of the law enforcement agencies, covering 48% of the population reported. You can check to see if your agency reported at: https://www.themarshallproject.org/2022/08/15/see-if-police-in-your-state-reported-crime-data-to-the-fbi
Keep in mind that in 2020, the year before the latest change, 16,000 agencies reported their data. Why the massive drop in reporting? Money and political priorities. Having been in law enforcement and being responsible for the department’s data submissions during a previous FBI reporting shift, a lot of work needs to be done by individual agencies. But it’s also not like these things happen overnight. Changes like this are years in the making.
So based on incomplete data, including no submissions from some of the largest, most crime infested areas of the country, the FBI declares crime is down. Did they include a clarification, a caveat or even an asterisk with an impossibly tiny font footnote explaining this was based on partial data? Of course not! The former premier law enforcement agency of the country, the ones everyone looks to for accurate, unbiased information, is once again purposely withholding the truth for the sake of partisan politics. The FBI and politicians who are saying crime is down are lying.
For a better assessment of what is going on, look at the just released Bureau of Justice Statistics’ National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS). The NCVS asks about 240,000 people each year whether they have been victims of crime to measure reported and unreported crime.
Between 2020 and 2023, rape increased by 42%, robbery by 63%, and aggravated assaults by 55%. Note the survey does not include homicide as that is most often reported to police.
Since 2020, the NIBRS and NCVS have been moving in opposite directions. The FBI has been finding fewer instances of crime, but people are simultaneously answering in greater numbers that they have been victims of crime.
Other than the massive gap in reporting data, there’s another reason why reported crime can be lower. When the public loses faith in the criminal justice community — the police, prosecutors, courts, and jails/prisons — they are less likely report a crime. If the police don’t show up, don’t make an arrest, or the prosecutors won’t file charges, suspects are released on no bail and take revenge against the victim, courts don’t hold people accountable and prisons let convicts out years to decades early, the public won’t see any advantage to reporting the crime.
The problem of course is the crime isn’t going to go away, it’s only going to continue to get worse and worse. Victims and those who do not wish to become victims, will continue to flee high crime cities and states in search of refuge elsewhere, just as the businesses already have. Those who cannot get out will continue to be victimized.
What will the defund the police, don’t charge the offender, don’t hold the criminal accountable and release anyone who has been ‘justice contacted’ progressive politicians do?
Well guess what, their response is all just part of the plan.
Bob
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